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Conduct an industry analysis and select a company within the same industry that can be used as a comparable Where possible, review the sales figures of this company to determine its sales history from Year 1 as well as its sales growth in the past few years Extrapolate from these figures and use the data to determine sales growth for your company Cost figures may be determined from cost data obtained through research on, for example, a publicly owned company in the same industry If sales commitments have already been secured, use these commitments to calculate the worst-case scenario Use larger amounts to calculate the best-case and most-likelycase scenarios If the product or service is completely new, market research can be undertaken to determine the overall market demand for this new product or service Identify the size of the market and assume that the company will get a specific percentage of the total market, depending on the total number of competitors Also, identify the potential customers and estimate the number of units that can be sold to each It is critical that whenever possible this market research be based on both secondary research (third party market reports and/or articles from credible sources) and also primary research (direct conversations and/or surveys with potential customers in the targeted segment) This ensures that the projections are based on reliable, defensible information sources and are not just back of the envelope guesses

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stock prices are likely to decline The decline will result from an overall real decline in company value, caused by dips in revenue or profits Further declines could be caused indirectly by sell-offs by investment funds that do not want a high-risk stock in their portfolio and by erosion of investor confidence If stock price is tied to revenue on a one-to-one ratio, for example, and if revenue declines by 20 percent, stock prices would also decline by 20 percent However, given probable investor panic, stock prices could decline far more rapidly if it is known that a company has suffered from repeated rogue or terrorist information warfare attacks If stock prices decline at twice the rate that revenue declines, and a company loses 40 percent of its revenue because of information warfare attacks, stock prices would be only 20 percent of their original value prior to the attacks The potential impact on stock prices because of declines in revenue caused by information warfare attacks is shown in Table 2-11

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Alternatively, you can use specific figures for your projections, based on your own assumptions or expectations It is important to state what these assumptions are and to justify why you believe them to be realistic

Table 2-11: Potential Impact on Stock Prices from Declines in Revenue Caused by Information Warfare Attacks Amount of Decline Revenue Levels 1-to-1 Ratio 2-to-1 Ratio

An important issue for a start-up company to consider is to make sure that all the necessary equipment financing needs are included Before closing this section on pro forma development, a major warning must be given It is important that the worst-case-scenario pro formas show that the cash flow can service the company s debt Otherwise, procuring financing, particularly debt, may prove to be virtually impossible This does not mean that the pro formas should be developed by working backward and plugging numbers For example, if the principal payments on debt obligations are $7,000 per month, it would be wrong to forecast the monthly revenue size, gross margins, and so on such that at least $7,000 would be generated in after-tax cash flow to service this obligation No, pro formas should be developed from the top down; forecasting defensible revenues and legitimate variable costs, including labor and materials, and market-rate fixed costs such as rent If, after developing the pro formas in this manner, it is shown that debt cannot be serviced, the action that needs to be taken is not to plug numbers, but rather to

All of these actions are designed to free up cash flow to service short-term debt Even if the entrepreneur is successful in raising capital using pro formas filled with plugged numbers, she will ultimately experience difficulties when the company s performance proves to be lower than the projections and the cash flow is not sufficient to meet debt obligations Finally, experienced business investors such as bankers and venture capitalists can easily detect pro formas filled with plugged numbers because typically the projections are such that all the company s debt can be serviced, with maybe a little cash left over Therefore, do not plug numbers A pro forma development case study for Clark Company is included at the end of 5

Level prior to attack 20% decline in revenue 30% decline in revenue 40% decline in revenue 50% decline in revenue 100% 80% 70% 60% 50% 100% 80% 70% 60% 50% 100% 60% 40% 20% Near zero

CHECKLIST OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION To enable investors to better understand the information presented in this section, it is best to provide a summary of financial data and then present the detailed financial tables Data should include:

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