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Out-of-sample and in-sample performances were separately evaluated By far the best out-of-sample performer was the genetic model: Out of all the models, it was the only one that showed a substantial profit when averaged over all the different tests The profit per trade was $3,271 Next best, in terms of out-of-sample behavior over all tests, were the small neural networks The neural network models were broken down into those for small and large nets because curve-fitting appeared to be a serious issue, especially affecting large nets The breakdown was a natural and easy one to accomplish because, in the tests, each model was tested with one small and one large network Out-of-sample, all the small neural networks taken together averaged a loss of $860 per trade.



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influence them. More than 25 percent of all handsets are contract manufactured and can therefore be influenced by Microsoft. And while Microsoft has succeeded in some cases, they have met with challenges in others. One barrier that Microsoft faces is that the existing economic mobile model leans heavily in favor of the large manufacturers. They produce millions of handsets, while contract manufacturers sell hundreds of thousands, resulting in devices that tend to be more expensive. Some analysts believe that Microsoft s attempted end-run will fail, but it s still too early to tell. Microsoft may be able to appeal to corporate clients if they craft a way to integrate mobile and desktop applications to create a seamless service continuum. The key point here is service: Technology, while important, is not the lead act in this play. Services, applications, solutions, and value represent the lead theme, and content is the principal cast of characters.

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This indicates a significantly better than chance entry in that random entries produced an average loss of over $2,000, with a standard deviation of slightly under $400 Going down in quality, the next best overall approach involved seasonal&y Altogether, all tests of seasonality models showed an average loss of $966 per trade Three of the moving average models (crossover, slope, and supportIre& tance) followed the performance of seasonality These models, when averaged across tests, lost around $1,500 per trade, which is close to the $2,100per-trade loss expected when using random entries In other words, the moving average models were only marginally better than random All the remaining models tested provided entries that were very close to random Cycles were actually worse than random In-sample, the genetic models ($12,533 per trade), all the neural network models (small, $8,940, and large, $13,082), and the breakouts ($1,537) traded profitably.

{ e.Handled = true; ChildWindow errorWin = new ErrorWindow(e.Uri); errorWin.Show(); } Here the ContentFrame_Navigated event is critical. With the use of the foreach loop, it iterates through the Children collection of the LinksStackPanel and casts each child as a HyperlinkButton. It then checks for the NavigateUri property and matches it to the received argument e.Uri of the NavigationEventArgs e object. If it matches, the State change happens for that matching HyperlinkButton to ensure the HyperlinkButton representing the current page is selected using VisualStateManager. The ContentFrame_NavigationFailed event simply handles the error occurring during the navigation and shows an error window.

The triad of content, carriage, and computing represents a strong weapon in the war against the widening cost-revenue gap. The existence of multiple service markets (enterprise, consumer) dictates that there are multiple judgments that define their value in each segment. For enterprise customers, network management and professional services rank well in the hierarchy because they provide a technology-to-services transition strategy. For residence customers, the main item identified is broadband access. Other so-called value-added services include video, music, games, simple wireless videoconferencing, and encryption. Note that these are all content-based services. On the other hand, value-added services (by the market s definition of value) include back-office integration, online payment and consolidated billing, content delivery (photos and video, primarily), and messaging (instant messaging and SMS). SMS, the GSM-equivalent of IM, is an enormously lucrative service offering: It is more than 1,000 times more lucrative in terms of dollars per transported bit than the nearest competitive service. Furthermore, the margins on traditional value-added services customarily, those provided through the magic of the SS7 signaling network and driven by database-intensive caller ID capability can be as high as 95 percent, one reason voice is still a lucrative product offering in spite of the fact that the price point for the service is declining. In this industry, we have often observed that the killer application for voice networks is data,

Downloaded from Digital Engineering Library @ McGraw-Hill (www.digitalengineeringlibrary.com) Copyright 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies. All rights reserved. Any use is subject to the Terms of Use as given at the website.

Out-of-sample, the genetic models continued to be profitable, the nets were better than chance (although there was significant shrinkage in their performance due to curve-fitting), and the breakouts deteriorated to chance (optimization cannot be a factor in this case)..

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