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In mid-2008, as Barbie s 50th anniversary approached, Ruth s widower, Elliot Handler, was, at 92 years old, in relatively good health. Well-liked by his former Mattel employees as the soft-spoken, creative member of the Handler team, while mannish Ruth, as Gwen Florea described her, was the one who took care of business, Elliot had recently completed painting portraits of his six great-grandchildren in his Century City penthouse overlooking Beverly Hills. An artist, he had just undergone a second surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome on his right hand, making painting dif cult. Mattel, and how he and his wife were forced out more than three decades earlier, are subjects he s loath to discuss. However, he acknowledges that Jack Ryan was a talented designer, a talented engineer who created a good engineering and design department for us. We brought him in working for us and we gave him a small royalty to go along with the product that he worked with. He concedes that there was an ongoing feud between Ryan and Ruth. They had arguments on a number of things. He and Ruth did not get along too well. It was just personality. Ruth had a strong ego and so did Jack. If you put two people with big egos together they bounce around a little bit.

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Because of the cycles, simply buying stocks in an index fund for the long run is not rational for the individual investor There are better and safer ways to manage a portfolio An investor, especially a retiree or pre-retiree, should be concerned about investment returns, especially from stocks, for the next ten years or so, not the average return over the past 70 years or more The investor should search for structural changes in the markets, the economy, or both, and invest the portfolio accordingly There also are shorter valuation cycles within the long-term valuation cycles A rational investor can try to identify the long-term valuation cycles and ride out any short-term changes within those long-term cycles Or the investor can also try to identify the intermediate cycles (of from one to five years) and capture the profit opportunities within those cycles.

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Another conclusion that can be drawn from Rational Beliefs is that the consensus at the extremes of the valuation cycle usually is wrong Investors as a group are most bullish near a market top and are most bearish near a market bottom This really is just common sense The valuation cycle could not be pushed to an extreme without having most investors believing the same things While it is comforting to invest in line with the way most people are thinking, it is not likely to be profitable at the valuation extremes Investing with the majority, however, can be profitable when valuations are not yet at an extreme Remember that the valuation cycle is caused by the vast majority of investors moving from one extreme toward the other That process can take years, and the shift is likely to continue pushing the markets in one direction for some time.

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It is important in identifying valuation cycles that one not focus on the short-term and the latest news The short-term news is known as market noise and will not improve returns A good practice is that of bond fund manager Bill Gross and his team at PIMCO Gross advocates looking at the likely scenario for the next three to five years and ignoring short-term fluctuations in between Focus on the major trends that seem likely in the markets and economy for that intermediate term and adjust the portfolio accordingly Though few are familiar with the details of the academic literature, Ra-.